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Pre-info- New NeXT Machines
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1990-06-24
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Sub: Pre-info: New NeXT Machines
PRE-RELEASE INFO ON NEW NEXT MACHINES
Customer & Competitive Analysis
APPLE CONFIDENTIAL / NEED TO KNOW
CONTACT: Ken Lim
Tomorrow, September 18th, NeXT will announce new products in San Francisco.
Product details have been kept well hidden and there are many conflicting
rumors. The new machines are logical, expected evolutions of the current NeXT
box. Although we have not been able to independently confirm them, here are
some of the more likely rumored changes:
• A monochrome system in a small 2”-high box with no expansion slots
• A 32-bit color system using Renderman graphics technology in a standard
NeXT cube case
• Both based on 25 MHz 68040s
• Built-in twisted pair and thin EtherNet connectors
• Addition of a 3.5-inch floppy disk drive (either 1.44 or 2.88 MB)
• Smaller 3.5-inch hard drives (starting at 100 instead of 300 MB)
• Different read-write optical drive with lower capacity (150 MB?), but
faster performance. Optical is reportedly optional now.
• 4 MB RAM instead of 8 MB
• Same software bundle except the dictionary has been stripped of all
pictures to save space on the optical disk.
• Rumored prices range widely from $3,000 to $10, 000
• Shipping supposedly begins in January
• Special pricing of $2,995 for the low-end system for universities willing to
commit to 50 units by January 1991 and another $500,000 over the next five
quarters. NeXT is specifically targeting Apple’s best higher ed accounts.
__________________
Marketing Analysis
NeXT’s new machines will undoubtedly be among the best in the industry in terms
of price/performance, specs and features. However, like the earlier model,
they will be extremely limited in applications and feel much slower than their
ratings would indicate. Expansion is limited and there is very little support
for the products outside specific higher ed accounts. NeXT buyers will get
lots of hardware, little software and unknown service and support. In sales
and PR situations, Apple should emphasize that NeXT is talking about vaporware,
that they are using discounted street prices vs. list prices and that Macintosh
has about 400 times more commercial applications than NeXT.
____________________
Preliminary Analysis
The low-end system is a stripped-down, cost-reduced version of the current box.
NeXT has reportedly told higher ed customers that $2995 is its cost. The new
systems are not likely to run well with the reduced RAM based on our experience
with the current NeXT machine.
We believe that NeXT is desperate at this point. The products will be
vaporware and/or bug-laden for several months based on Motorola’s current
delivery schedule for ‘040s. NeXT will have to grab and hold developer and
user attention to an unprecedented degree in order to build enough momentum to
become a viable alternative. The optical disk, high power and the
NextStep/Interface Builder software have failed to do this so far. It’s
questionable if the new low prices are enough to change this. (Both
Ashton-Tate and Lotus will announce new NeXT-specific spreadsheets, Powerstep
and Improv. These products will help, but their inability to run on other
platforms will limit their acceptance.)
This is a make or break situation for NeXT. Time is running out for NeXT to
become a serious contender in the PC/workstation market. Macintosh is clearly
the major alternative to the Intel/Microsoft architecture and NeXT must contend
with Sun Microsystems for the top spot in UNIX popularization. The first half
of 1991 will tell whether NeXT becomes a SPARC or an Amiga. At this point, we
believe it’s a 50/50 chance but moving toward the Amiga end of the scale
rapidly.
__________________________________________________________
We welcome your comments and suggestions. Please Link us at COMPETITION.